Guillaume Faury, CEO of Airbus, stated to an audience of notables in the aviation industry on Wednesday night that the industry’s full recovery was still some time away.
Faury informed attendees at the UK Aviation Club that it was doubtful that traffic would return to 2019 levels before 2024.
Reuters reports that while Faury stated that Airbus was adhering to its recovery prediction between 2023 and 2025, he added that 2023 was now beginning to seem less possible.
He attributed that to significant airline losses and enduring Chinese travel restrictions.
Of again, given the unpredictability of geopolitics, China could decide to open its doors tomorrow, sparking a boom in Asia-Pacific demand and shattering Faury’s prediction.
That’s just how forecasting works, especially when it comes to the weather and aviation.
Its all about production rate
The main issue for Airbus appears to be its monthly production rate and achieving the enchanted output of 75 narrowbody aircraft per month by 2025.
Engine manufacturers and other supply chain participants may have some misgivings, but Faury said it was likely that the objective would be met.
“Although there is greater demand than 75, we believe that 75 is the best spot to be from a demand standpoint for the second half of the decade. Given the travel time, it is more difficult for 75, but we will make it. It only comes down to speed.”
A race to the finish line in 2022
Airbus had only delivered 437 aircraft as of September 30, far shy of its revised (lower) goal of 700 in 2022. Aircraft sales pay the bills and satisfy shareholders, but Faury said there was more at play.
He believes that making 700 deliveries will be the first in a series of steps leading up to the target of 75 narrowbody monthly deliveries planned for 2025, adding,
“We have a lot to do over the next three months, but it isn’t much different from what we did in 2017, 2018, and 2019. For the year 2022. And in order to be on the road to turning 65, we need to get there.”
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